中文Holiday 2026: Online Will Win Again as Shoppers Hunt Value, Not Just Deals
The most wonderful time of the year is shaping up to be another banner season for e-commerce. According to Deloitte’s annual retail forecast, online sales in the United States are set to grow nearly twice as fast as overall retail during the November 2026 to January 2027 holiday window — a continuation of a decade-long shift that has permanently rewired how Americans buy everything from sneakers to leather boots.
The headline numbers
Deloitte projects total US holiday retail sales will rise between 4.0% and 4.8% versus the same period in 2025, landing at roughly $1.70 to $1.71 trillion. For context, holiday sales grew 4.1% in the year-ago period, so this is steady, if unspectacular, expansion.
E-commerce is the real story. Online sales are expected to climb between 7.5% and 8.4% year-on-year, reaching $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion. That growth rate comfortably outpaces total retail, meaning the digital channel will again take share from physical stores during the most important selling weeks of the year.
Behind the figures sits a deceptively simple driver: disposable personal income. “DPI remains an important input to our holiday retail forecast,” noted Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights, who projects DPI to grow 4.5% to 5.2% during the season. When households have a bit more in their pockets, they spend — and increasingly, they spend online.
Value is the new loyalty
If there is a single theme for Holiday 2026, it is deliberate choice. Natalie Martini, vice chair of Deloitte and US retail and consumer products leader, observed that consumers “continue to place importance on making the holidays special” while also “making deliberate choices about how they spend.” Regardless of income level, shoppers are switching between brands and retailers and leaning on promotions to stretch their budgets.
For footwear and leather brands, that is a warning wrapped in an opportunity. The era of automatic brand loyalty is over; a customer will happily trade their usual label for a better price or a sharper story. Brands that lead with genuine value — not just discount tags — and meet shoppers where they research, compare, and buy will capture the growth. Those that rely on heritage alone may watch the channel pass them by.
Barua also flagged that the “continued growth in e-commerce sales is expected to be aided by consumers’ ongoing use of digital tools to research, compare and complete purchases across all categories.” Translation: the path to purchase now starts on a phone, runs through a review site, and ends at a checkout that may or may not be the brand’s own.
What brands should do now
The data points to three moves. First, invest in the comparison-shopping experience — rich product content, honest sizing, and fast, trustworthy delivery beat blanket discounts. Second, treat promotions as precision instruments, not blunt cuts; targeted offers protect margin while still feeling generous. Third, remember that e-commerce growth is concentrated, so a weak digital storefront is no longer a minor gap but a primary leak in the bucket.
Holiday 2026 will not be a blowout, but it will be another step in the quiet revolution of retail. The brands that win will be the ones that understood the season was never really about the biggest sale — it was about the smartest shopper.
Source: World Footwear — “US: E-commerce to outpace overall retail holiday sales growth” (October 6, 2026)
